It seems that the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is all set to gift away a comfortable victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies in the forthcoming Union elections, with the latter doing nothing much to earn it. Looking at the way things are happening, it is as if history is repeating itself. It was not very long ago that onions had taken away the sheen of whatever good work that the then National Democratic Alliance had done. The electorate had then ruthlessly stripped them of their power, showcasing the crude fact that the Indian electorate posses extremely short memories, particularly when it comes to elections. And this time, no one else is realising it more than the ruling UPA. They realise that gone is the euphoria they created by gifting the huge Rs.60,000 crore loan waiver for farmers in this year’s annual budget, and that too barely two months ago. And gone along with it is the positive sentiment that was created by the increase in the non-taxable income from Rs.1 lakh to Rs.1.5 lakh. Also gone is the populist Sixth Pay Commission, which was clearly to woo the Indian middle class.
In less than a few weeks’ time, all that the UPA (and not just the Congress) had tried to prove – as being the representative of the aam aadmi – has been withered away by a phenomenon that is taking catastrophic proportions not just within the nation, but globally. The inflation figure, which is hovering at around 7.33%, has been giving sleepless nights to most governments across the world, including the UPA. In fact, UPA should remember quite well how, around a decade back, BJP had to pay dearly by getting routed in three state assembly elections, simply because the prices of onions had skyrocketed. And this time, it is not just onions; prices have shot up across each and every basic commodity, making things extremely difficult for the Congress. And out of nowhere, a disorganised opposition led by BJP, has found a major poll plank to avenge its earlier defeat. And if the UPA fails to reign in the prices, then it is needless to state that it would all be over for them, at least in the forthcoming elections.
It is a fact that other than certain climatic disruptions, most of this crisis has been primarily driven by the US, with their policy of diverting corn towards extraction of ethanol for bio-fuel being a major reason too! In addition to this, there has also been a sustained increase in the consumption of food in many of the developing countries, especially India and China! Moreover, China’s insatiable demand for steel and other basic commodities has anyways led to an increase in the general price index all across the world. But then, the simple fact that price rise is a global phenomenon, need not be excuse enough for not taking positive actions in India; on the contrary, this is an opportunity for India and its leaders to lead from the front and augment credibility not only for themselves, but for the nation as a whole. Not only that, if it were an Indian problem alone, one could still afford to be relatively complacent (as the world would always be there to help during a real crisis). But this time, it’s a global problem; and if we get into a crisis, there would be very less help coming our way, as all countries would be busy saving their own economies. So it becomes nothing less than imperative for the government to take urgent and proactive measures to solve this crisis.
In less than a few weeks’ time, all that the UPA (and not just the Congress) had tried to prove – as being the representative of the aam aadmi – has been withered away by a phenomenon that is taking catastrophic proportions not just within the nation, but globally. The inflation figure, which is hovering at around 7.33%, has been giving sleepless nights to most governments across the world, including the UPA. In fact, UPA should remember quite well how, around a decade back, BJP had to pay dearly by getting routed in three state assembly elections, simply because the prices of onions had skyrocketed. And this time, it is not just onions; prices have shot up across each and every basic commodity, making things extremely difficult for the Congress. And out of nowhere, a disorganised opposition led by BJP, has found a major poll plank to avenge its earlier defeat. And if the UPA fails to reign in the prices, then it is needless to state that it would all be over for them, at least in the forthcoming elections.
It is a fact that other than certain climatic disruptions, most of this crisis has been primarily driven by the US, with their policy of diverting corn towards extraction of ethanol for bio-fuel being a major reason too! In addition to this, there has also been a sustained increase in the consumption of food in many of the developing countries, especially India and China! Moreover, China’s insatiable demand for steel and other basic commodities has anyways led to an increase in the general price index all across the world. But then, the simple fact that price rise is a global phenomenon, need not be excuse enough for not taking positive actions in India; on the contrary, this is an opportunity for India and its leaders to lead from the front and augment credibility not only for themselves, but for the nation as a whole. Not only that, if it were an Indian problem alone, one could still afford to be relatively complacent (as the world would always be there to help during a real crisis). But this time, it’s a global problem; and if we get into a crisis, there would be very less help coming our way, as all countries would be busy saving their own economies. So it becomes nothing less than imperative for the government to take urgent and proactive measures to solve this crisis.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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