From Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin, every new Russian president has drastically altered his country’s relationship with the world. How will President Dmitry Medvedev change it again? Here are the clues that reveal what the Kremlin is thinking, and, more importantly, what it really wants.
This much we know: In the two decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has transformed itself from a one-party state into a one-pipeline state – a semi-authoritarian regime in democratic clothing. At the same time, Russia has grown increasingly independent and unpredictable on the international political scene. And now that Vladimir Putin has successfully installed his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is nowhere near relinquishing his grip on power. Putin’s foreign policy is here to stay.
But there’s so much we can’t know about the direction Russia is heading. It is, at once, a regime that offers its citizens consumer rights but not political freedoms, state sovereignty but not individual autonomy, a market economy but not genuine democracy. It is both a rising global power and a weak state with corrupt and inefficient institutions. The Kremlin’s regime seems both rock solid and extremely vulnerable, simultaneously authoritarian and wildly popular. Although Russia’s economy has performed well in the past 10 years, it is more dependent on the production and export of natural resources today than it was during Soviet times. Its foreign policy is no less puzzling. Russia may be more democratic today, but it is less predictable and reliable as a world player than was the Soviet Union. The more capitalist and Westernised Russia becomes, the more anti-Western its policies seem. The more successful Russia’s foreign policy looks, the more unclear its goals appear.
Russia’s contradictory development has succeeded once again in capturing the world’s political imagination. Putin’s tenure has left most people confused about what role Russia now wants to play in the world. In recent years, for example, Moscow has orchestrated a noisy and confrontational return to the international scene. It decided not to cooperate with the West in taming Iran’s nuclear ambitions or in settling the final status of Kosovo. Last year, the Kremlin unilaterally suspended the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. It blocked the work of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, aggressively tries to control the energy supply throughout the region. The country’s military budget has increased six fold since 2000. Russian planes are patrolling the Atlantic. Moscow’s intelligence network is creeping into all corners of Europe. Not since the hottest days of the Cold War have so many wondered just what was going on behind the Kremlin’s closed doors.
This much we know: In the two decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has transformed itself from a one-party state into a one-pipeline state – a semi-authoritarian regime in democratic clothing. At the same time, Russia has grown increasingly independent and unpredictable on the international political scene. And now that Vladimir Putin has successfully installed his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is nowhere near relinquishing his grip on power. Putin’s foreign policy is here to stay.
But there’s so much we can’t know about the direction Russia is heading. It is, at once, a regime that offers its citizens consumer rights but not political freedoms, state sovereignty but not individual autonomy, a market economy but not genuine democracy. It is both a rising global power and a weak state with corrupt and inefficient institutions. The Kremlin’s regime seems both rock solid and extremely vulnerable, simultaneously authoritarian and wildly popular. Although Russia’s economy has performed well in the past 10 years, it is more dependent on the production and export of natural resources today than it was during Soviet times. Its foreign policy is no less puzzling. Russia may be more democratic today, but it is less predictable and reliable as a world player than was the Soviet Union. The more capitalist and Westernised Russia becomes, the more anti-Western its policies seem. The more successful Russia’s foreign policy looks, the more unclear its goals appear.
Russia’s contradictory development has succeeded once again in capturing the world’s political imagination. Putin’s tenure has left most people confused about what role Russia now wants to play in the world. In recent years, for example, Moscow has orchestrated a noisy and confrontational return to the international scene. It decided not to cooperate with the West in taming Iran’s nuclear ambitions or in settling the final status of Kosovo. Last year, the Kremlin unilaterally suspended the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. It blocked the work of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, aggressively tries to control the energy supply throughout the region. The country’s military budget has increased six fold since 2000. Russian planes are patrolling the Atlantic. Moscow’s intelligence network is creeping into all corners of Europe. Not since the hottest days of the Cold War have so many wondered just what was going on behind the Kremlin’s closed doors.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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